2026 Home Insurance Rates: Will SoCal’s Record-Wet Months Push Them Higher?

California homeowners are already dealing with painful home insurance increases. Now, an extremely wet November in parts of Southern California has raised new concerns about flooding, mudslides, and how reinsurers will price that risk going into 2026.

Reinsurance is the “insurance for insurance companies.” When reinsurers raise prices or tighten terms after big weather losses, home insurers often respond with higher premiums, bigger deductibles, and stricter underwriting rules. For homeowners, that can mean paying more for less coverage or struggling to find coverage at all.

Table of Contents

• November’s Record Rainfall Explained
• Why does a wet November matter for 2026 reinsurance pricing?
• How is the homeowners reinsurance market setting up for 2026?
• What does this mean for homeowners’ premiums in 2026?
• Key factors that could shape 2026 home insurance costs
• How could record-wet storms affect your coverage, not just your rate?
• What can homeowners do heading into winter 2025 and 2026?
• What might 2026 look like for homeowners, if storms keep coming?
• How Inszone Insurance Services can help homeowners now
• Sources and Further Reading

November’s Record Rainfall Explained

November 2025 has been unusually wet across many parts of California, especially in the south:

• Multiple strong storms brought heavy rain and flash flooding to Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Diego counties.
• Santa Barbara saw around 8 inches of rain in November and is having one of its wettest early rainy seasons in more than a century, with some nearby gauges approaching 10 inches.
• Downtown Los Angeles logged one of its wettest Novembers on record since reliable records began in the 19th century.
• Some locations in the Santa Ynez Mountains and Ventura County picked up roughly 7–13 inches of rain over a few days.
• Localized flooding was reported in cities like Westminster, Garden Grove, and other low-lying neighborhoods across Southern California.

Most of this rain fell as warm, low-elevation storms linked to strong “atmospheric river” events. These storms reduce wildfire risk in the short term but increase flood, mudslide, and erosion risk, especially in burn scars and neighborhoods near hills, canyons, or creeks.

Why does a wet November matter for 2026 reinsurance pricing?

Reinsurers look at long-term patterns, not just one month of bad weather. But big, news-making events change how they view local risk and where they allocate capital. For Southern California, several things are happening at the same time:

• Climate volatility: California is seeing both severe drought and periods of extreme rain. Warmer storms bring more water as rain instead of snow. That can push flood and mudslide risk higher in fall and winter.
• Concentrated property values: Coastal and suburban areas in Southern California are packed with high-value homes. When flooding hits these neighborhoods, even a “moderate” event can produce very large insured losses.
• Already stressed market: Reinsurance costs for California property have surged over the past decade, with especially sharp increases from 2020 through 2023.
• Regulatory changes: Until recently, California made it hard for insurers to fully reflect reinsurance costs and catastrophe models in homeowner rates. New rules now allow more use of forward-looking models and better alignment of premiums with risk, which lets insurers pass more of that reinsurance cost into premiums.

Put simply: when reinsurers look at Southern California, they see wildfire, flood, and mudslide exposures stacked on top of very high property values. A record-wet November reinforces that this is more than a wildfire story. It is an all-hazards, year-round risk.

How is the homeowners reinsurance market setting up for 2026?

The global property reinsurance market went through a sharp “hardening” from 2022 to early 2024. Prices jumped, coverage terms tightened, and capacity pulled back after years of large catastrophe losses.

In late 2024 and through 2025, some easing started to appear:

• Market reviews show property rates beginning to soften in 2025, with more capacity and even double-digit rate decreases in some lower-risk areas as reinsurers and insurers returned to profitability.
• Major industry outlooks project U.S. property and casualty premium growth to remain positive through 2026, but insurers are cautious about letting rates drop too far.
• Surveys of reinsurance buyers suggest many expect modest price declines in 2026 for property reinsurance, assuming there are no late-2025 mega-disasters.

However, the “average” trend does not tell the full story for Southern California. Reinsurers are increasingly differentiating between:

• Lower-risk regions where pricing may flatten or ease; and
• High-risk coastal, wildfire, or flood-exposed areas where capacity can stay tight and pricing elevated.

California, especially wildfire- and flood-prone ZIP codes, falls firmly into that second category. Research already shows that premiums and nonrenewal rates are much higher in areas with high expected climate-related losses.

What does this mean for homeowners’ premiums in 2026?

Even if global reinsurance prices flatten or soften slightly in 2026, many homeowners, especially in California, are unlikely to see quick relief.

Recent data and forecasts show:

• Average U.S. home insurance premiums have risen by double digits over the past few years, with many states seeing roughly 10–20% increases between 2023 and 2024.
• California home insurance premiums are projected to rise by roughly 20% or more between 2023 and the end of 2025, based on current filings and model-based forecasts.
• Large carriers have requested significant rate increases in California, sometimes totaling around 30% or more when multiple filings are combined, citing extreme wildfire losses and capital strain.
• Several major insurers have paused new policies or non-renewed existing ones in higher-risk regions because of wildfire, inflation, and reinsurance costs.

Against that backdrop, an extremely wet November is likely to reinforce risk models for flood, flash-flood, and landslide exposures, especially in specific canyons, coastal plains, and areas near streams. That does not mean everyone’s premium jumps overnight, but it can influence:

• The overall rate level insurers seek for California property portfolios.
• Extra surcharges or higher deductibles for homes in mapped flood or mudslide zones.
• The number of non-renewals in the most exposed pockets if reinsurers require tighter underwriting.

Key factors that could shape 2026 home insurance costs

Driver	What’s Happening	Likely Impact on Homeowners
Reinsurance pricing	After sharp increases through 2023, prices are stabilizing and may soften slightly in 2026, but high-risk regions remain expensive.	Premiums may keep rising in Southern California, just at a slower pace. Some relief is more likely in lower-risk areas.
Climate-driven weather extremes	More intense rainfall, longer wildfire seasons, and multi-billion-dollar disasters across the U.S.	Keeps loss expectations high, which supports higher base rates and tighter underwriting.
Construction & repair costs	Higher costs for labor and materials, plus tariffs and supply constraints, increase rebuild expenses after losses.	Even without big disasters, premiums rise to keep up with the true cost to rebuild homes.
Regulatory changes in California	New rules allow the use of forward-looking catastrophe models and pass-through of reinsurance costs.	Short term: higher rates in risky areas. Long term: potential for more carriers to return if they can price risk accurately.
Local risk concentration	High-value Southern California neighborhoods exposed to both wildfire and flood/mudslide risk.	More scrutiny on individual homes, especially near canyons, creeks, and hillsides; possible non-renewals or stricter terms.

How could record-wet storms affect your coverage, not just your rate?

Homeowners often assume that if rainwater floods their home, their standard homeowners policy will pay. That is usually not the case.

After a month like November 2025, insurers and reinsurers often revisit how flood and water damage is handled in policy language:

• Flood vs. water damage: Standard homeowners policies generally cover sudden, accidental water damage from inside the home (like a burst pipe). They usually exclude overland flooding, meaning water that comes in from outside. That usually requires separate flood insurance, either through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) or a private carrier.
• Backup & seepage: Some policies offer optional endorsements for sewer or drain backup and limited coverage for seepage. After heavy rains, insurers may tighten how these endorsements are written or increase deductibles.
• Landslide & mudflow: Losses from earth movement are often excluded under standard policies, even when triggered by heavy rain. Coverage sometimes requires specialty policies or differences-in-conditions (DIC) coverage.

If reinsurers see an increased likelihood of repeat flooding in certain zones, especially where November 2025 storms exposed weak drainage or overwhelmed local infrastructure, they may pressure primary insurers to:

• Limit coverage for certain perils.
• Increase special deductibles (for example, separate flood or wind deductibles).
• Require elevation certificates, mitigation work, or proof of drainage improvements before renewing coverage.

What can homeowners do heading into winter 2025 and 2026?

The good news: homeowners are not powerless. Even in a tough market, there are practical steps that can reduce both risk and cost.

1. Understand your flood and water exposure

• Check FEMA flood maps and any available local flood-control maps to see your home’s official risk zone.
• Look at recent rainfall and flood reports. Did your area experience street flooding or creek overflows?
• Remember: you do not have to be in a “high-risk” FEMA zone to flood. Many recent claims have come from moderate- or low-risk zones.

2. Review your current insurance package, not just the price

• Confirm your dwelling limit still reflects the true rebuild cost in today’s construction market.
• Check whether you have extended replacement cost or guaranteed replacement cost coverage.
• Ask if you have separate flood, earthquake, and sewer backup coverage, and what those limits and deductibles are.

3. Invest in mitigation that insurers and reinsurers actually care about

• Install or maintain French drains, sump pumps, and backflow valves where appropriate.
• Keep gutters, downspouts, and drains clear, especially before major rain events.
• Consider simple grading or landscaping changes to move water away from foundations.
• In wildfire-adjacent areas, maintain defensible space and harden your home (roofing, vents, cleared vegetation). Wildfire risk still drives much of the reinsurance view of California.

Many insurers now use hazard scoring and satellite or aerial imagery. Improvements that reduce your home’s risk can sometimes make a difference in underwriting decisions or eligibility for preferred programs.

4. Work with a broker who understands high-risk markets

In a complex environment, having a knowledgeable insurance broker is often the biggest advantage a homeowner can have.

At Inszone Insurance Services, our team works with multiple carriers, including those focused on wildfire, flood, and other catastrophe-exposed properties, to help homeowners:

• Compare options between admitted carriers, surplus lines markets, and the California FAIR Plan when necessary.
• Bundle homeowners, auto, and umbrella coverage where it makes sense.
• Identify coverage gaps related to flood, mudslide, and earth movement.
• Adjust deductibles and limits to balance affordability with real protection.

If you own a home in Southern California or any other high-risk area, this winter is a good time to schedule a coverage review, not just wait for your next renewal notice.

What might 2026 look like for homeowners, if storms keep coming?

If the wet pattern continues into winter 2025, 2026, and beyond, several trends are likely:

• More granular pricing: Instead of treating entire regions the same, insurers will rely even more on block-by-block or property-level risk scoring. Two homes on the same street could see very different pricing and options.
• Higher demand for flood coverage: As more homeowners see “non-traditional” flooding, demand for NFIP and private flood policies will grow. That could bring more private competition, but also higher prices in high-loss zones.
• Regulatory and public-policy debates: California regulators are already reshaping how catastrophe models and reinsurance costs feed into homeowner rates. Debates will continue around affordability, subsidies, the FAIR Plan’s role, and climate adaptation.
• Stronger linkage between mitigation and access to coverage: Over time, homeowners who invest in risk reduction, better defensible space, improved drainage, and structural retrofits are likely to have more options and better terms.

For individual homeowners, the most important move is staying proactive: tracking changes, updating coverage, and documenting the steps you are taking to protect your property.

How Inszone Insurance Services can help homeowners now

Insurance and reinsurance pricing are shaped by global capital markets, complex models, and severe weather trends, things no individual homeowner can control. But you can control how well your own policy is structured.

Inszone can help you:

• Review your current homeowners policy in light of recent storms and flood concerns.
• Evaluate whether you should add flood insurance, earthquake coverage, or umbrella liability.
• Shop options across multiple carriers, including solutions for homes in wildfire- or flood-exposed areas.
• Coordinate coverage if you also own rental properties, a small business, or vacation homes.

If you are unsure how recent storms and 2026 reinsurance pricing might affect you, consider scheduling a policy review with an Inszone agent. A short conversation now can help you avoid surprises and possible coverage gaps later.

Sources and Further Reading

• Swiss Re, US Property & Casualty Outlook
• Seneca Insurance, State of the Property Insurance Market 2025–2026
• McKinsey, California’s Homeowners Market and Reinsurance Costs
• Harvard JCHS, California’s Homeowners Insurance as National Bellwether
• Milliman, California Homeowners Insurance Insights
• NOAA, National Climate Reports (November 2024 and 2025 context)
• Los Angeles Times, Coverage of Southern California Storms and Flooding
• Rate.com, Home Insurance Trends for 2025
• Insurify, Home Insurance Price Projections
• Deloitte, Global Insurance Outlook